What changes can we expect in U.S. foreign policy in January ’09?

by Keith Cooper

From Broader View Weekly, August 1, 2008

Recent course changes by the Bush administration have brought it closer to the center and more in line with Senator Barack Obama’s approach, than that of Republican nominee, Senator John McCain. Bush recently admitted he would consider a “time horizon” (apparently not to be confused with a “timetable”) for withdrawal from Iraq, and would consider talks with Iran and North Korea – two members of Bush’s “Axis of Evil.” McCain’s hard line on these issues actually positions the senator to the right of Bush, and may appease the neo-conservatives who have previously viewed him as too moderate or even left-leaning.

The cynic in me sees the shift on Bush’s part as a political maneuver to win his party’s candidate the trust of its hard-to-please conservative base. In the last months of the administration’s reign, there is little political risk by moving to the left. Conversely, there is much to gain by polishing McCain’s image among conservatives, whose support will be crucial to keeping Republicans in control of the Executive.

The optimist in me sees the shift as an affirmation that the “go-it-alone” policy of the Bush administration has not worked, and has in fact created problems for the United States. It seems clear that a change in direction is welcome.

Obama’s recent trip abroad and his popularity internationally has been a positive sign. Speaking in Berlin to a huge audience, Obama presented a United States not only willing, but needing to work in cooperation with other nations. This is in stark contrast to the Bush administration’s former policy of trivializing the international community and its “bring it on” mentality.
On the other hand, McCain’s brand of change seems to be out-Bushing Bush by staying firm on a military action against Iran and keeping troops in Iraq until we achieve “victory.” Unfortunately, our military is stretched too thinly to make an attack of Iran feasible (not to mention the firestorm that would be ignited by another U.S. aggression in the region). And the United States will never be victorious in Iraq. We can’t even define what “victorious” means. McCain calls Bush’s surge of troops in Iraq a success because the level of violence has declined in select areas. Victory in Iraq for the Iraqis would be defined as an improvement over pre-invasion conditions, and that is not part of the U.S. vision of Iraq’s importance to our economic interests. Even if we could somehow agree on how victory would look in Iraq, should our political leaders be brandishing the word like trash-talking sports stars egging each other on? The politicization of war during the Bush administration is what has led to the problems my fellow columnist lists as issues facing the next president.

Whoever takes the podium next January will inherit the legacy of George W. Bush who squandered international support after 9/11 and turned it into a climate of “us verses them.” The United States is engaged in an ideological “war on terror” with no bounds and little moral restriction because of this administration’s policies. The Taliban is regaining strength in Afghanistan because Bush “the decider” refocused resources on his personal agenda in Iraq, committing our sons and daughters to his war of choice. Iraq is now a war-battered country with damaged infrastructure and a fragile political system. Sectarian violence continues in the region despite claims that religious differences have been settled. U.S. policies of aggression and torture have left stains on our international reputation and even close allies have denounced our practices.

Perhaps a change in administrations will bring about reconciliation with the rest of the world. Perhaps allies will sense a new vision and work with us to address the current issues. Perhaps U.S. foreign policy will look less like cowboy bravado and imperialism, and more like diplomacy and cooperation. Perhaps U.S. citizens will be more watchful of the politicization of acts of war.

Unfortunately, the reality of the current political climate is what it is. Though the election campaign will officially end in November, the permanent campaign that too often influences governance will rage on. Pressure from within and without the next administration, will be great to show “strength” or “resolve” or merely cater to one ideological cause or another. If Obama is our next president, the perceived weakness of the Democratic Party will be endlessly hammered, and advisors will be quick to propose actions that demonstrate military might at the expense of reason. McCain will be increasingly pressured to appease the Republican base by making decisions that benefit the pro-military neo-conservatives.

Hopefully, Americans are wearied enough of the Bush administration scare tactics and fear mongering to keep a watchful eye on the Executive. Hopefully, Congress has learned its lesson about quick authorization of military force without proper foundation. Hopefully, cooler heads will prevail, and honor and dignity can be returned to the office of president.