by Keith Cooper
Again, the president’s lack of credibility is threatening to worsen U.S.-world relations. When the National Intelligence Estimate was released this week, stating that Iran may have halted the weapons program that the administration has been using as the foundation to build a case for war with Iran, Bush chose to disregard the intelligence once more. In a repeat performance of the rush to the Iraq war, Bush is stubbornly sticking to the hard-line approach of sanctions and pressure that is in keeping with the administration’s frightening pre-emptive war strategy.
The new intelligence wasn’t so easy for other world leaders to ignore, though. Condi Rice and the State Department spent hours on the phone trying to patch up the holes the report punched through our European alliances. Meanwhile, Bush appealed to Russia’s Putin, who was already critical of the international policy toward Iran, in an attempt to smooth things over. Any hopes of getting China on board to support a U.N. hard line may be out the window at this point. I know that this may mean little to an administration that has ever disdained the U.N. as a quaint and irrelevant organization, but our standing with the international community is important.
The U.S. military force is already overextended with our engagements in Afghanistan and Iraq. We can ill afford to become entangled in yet another conflict in the region, even with the support of an international coalition. A unilateral U.S. invasion of Iran would be catastrophic in its human costs as well as in the damage to our international standing. I am not claiming we are incapable of being the “big dog” bully in the Middle East. We are. However, the costs will be too great for our nation to bear.
Right now, it appears that public support for a war with Iran just isn’t there. I hope that’s true and that Bush can’t go to the same well of fear that allowed the administration to sell us the Iraq travesty. However, the continued saber rattling seems like déjà vu to me.
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5 comments:
Keith,
Call me a bit skeptical, but I seem to remember Iran's president
talking of wiping a little nation off the face of the earth. I
believe he also denied the holocaust as well. Oh and that little
problem of Iran supporting terrorism in Iraq killing my fellow
Soldiers as well as the hundreds of innocent civilians in the
Baghdad market places and bus stops. I'm sure he didn't really
mean it though; I mean if this completely logical, benevolent
leader in the middle east did have nuclear power I'm sure he
wouldn't think of using it for evil means. I would imagine based
on Islamic doctrine that he would merely use it for the furthering
of peace on earth. Probably he just wants to use it so that his
own people will be better off then he can better promote his agenda
of benevolence. I am curious if there has been any research done
on the amount of money that Iranians gave for the Tsunami tragedy
of several years back? I bet the Iranian government went out of
there way to give a hand to those less fortunate. On the other
hand if he did for some reason want to wreak global havoc he
definitely would be able to. All it would take is a couple of
nukes on the right oil refineries and presto chango you have
absolute economic desolation globally. What am I thinking, this
man wouldn't dream of creating such catastrophe. Let me get back
to my saturday morning cartoons, I LIVE IN AMERICA!! Nothing can
happen to me here! Thanks for easing my mind.
Slightly Irritated,
Eric
I never claimed Ahmadinejad was not a tyrant or a madman or a threat. My point is that we cannot choose to operate in the way that Bush would like us to. We cannot continue to trump up false charges simply to garner support for our agendas. Of course we have a stake in the region; we are addicted to petroleum. Of course Israel is sweating because of the the Iranian president's assertions (even though polls and other information seem to point out that Ahmadinejad is largely irrelevant). However, putting our troops in further harm is serious business. We shouldn't engage in deception in matters of war, regardless of the goals.
Bush hasn't been pushing for sanctions and military action against Iran because its president is a maniac. He based it on the nuclear WEAPONS program. If he knew that that program was probably discontinued, he and his administration shouldn't have continued with that line. It is deceitful and shameful and personally, insulting to the citizenry of this nation to expect us to just buy these lies.
Further, Ahmadinejad holds no monopoly on tyranny (and neither did Sadaam). If we were consistent in targeting every madman in power, we would be impossibly engaged in military actions worldwide. This preemptive foreign policy is dangerous for us globally.
Keith
Well Keith, here is the huge problem. The NIE itself, created by a hideously inept CIA with a gaggle of intelligence services along for the ride, doesn't really say for certain if the Iranian atomic bomb program has or has not been restarted. It only says they "stopped" it in 2003.
For Iran, this is a resounding triumph.
If I'm a betting man, I say the Iranians test a working plutonium bomb inside of two calendar years.
If I have to trust anyone, it will be the Mossad. Don't ask me to trust the CIA; they've screwed up more times than I can remember.
When the Iranians do test, and they will, everyone who is blaming Bush today will have to think up another carnival act, because Bush will be gone.
You say that Bush hasn't been pushing for military action and sanctions because Ahmadinejad is a maniac, I would argue that that is precisely why Bush is doing "this". Though I can't say what "this" is since I'm not privy to that information. I do agree with you to an extent, that we definitely need to be careful that we aren't trumping up false charges, I am not convinced however that that is what has happened. I am a bit concerned for the current administration as well as the future administration in regards to the implications of this report coming out. It essentially opens the door for Ahmadinejad to do whatever he pleases because the U.S. hands are now tied. This report does nothing good for the U.S. And to think that this report is at all reality seems to contrast everything we know about this tyrant. Excuse me if I don't jump on the Ahmadinejad bandwagon. If I were a conspiracy theorist I would definitely being wondering about that report. If Iran doesn't have weapons then yeah for us, but it does have technology and will to kill innocence, and that is precisely what they support. Unfortunately for the many citizens of Iran who also think Ahmadinejad is an idiot, they are at the disposal of their king. You are right about him not holding any monopoly on tyranny, but those other tyrants aren't currently planning an attack on our allies or our Soldiers, at least as far as I know. They also aren't stupid enough to go blathering about wiping other nations off the map. They also probably aren't on the verge of developing nuclear weapons, some perhaps. I am curious as to what contingency plan you would propose the U.S. government (and the world for that matter) take in regards to Iran's race for nuclear power.
Eric
Section9,
What is your capacity in the Intelligence Community? I can see you are well-qualified to critique the aptitude of the CIA and other agencies.
Interestingly, I'd wager you'd rate the intelligence used to build the case for the Iraq disaster pretty credible. I guess one estimate that doesn't toe the White House line is proof of incompetence.
Keith
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